HUMINT Mission Portfolio: Takeover Rumors – True or False?

Situation

A global credit organization needed to confirm or refute a rumor regarding the takeover or possible takeover of a smaller competitor. This rumor, if true, would create a new firm capable of challenging it in several global markets – especially the EuroZone. Executives were highly distracted with the discussion, hijacking strategy meetings for weeks with the latest unfounded speculation.

Method

Aurora GPS conducted a global series of interviews with decision makers, regulators and stakeholders. No one interview provided a complete picture of the situation – and many would not speak to interviewers – even off the record. But piecing together information from several sources seemed to indicate that yes, the merger was indeed in discussion, but no, it was not imminent. In fact, the negotiations seemed to be coming to an unsuccessful end.

Results

The organization kept an eye on developments, but refocused its attention back on its own strategic initiatives. Weeks later when information leaked to the press that merger plans were being conducted in secret and had broken off, it was a non-event inside the executive team.